Journal of Financial Economics; January 2019 In Press

决策疲劳和启发式分析师预测

作者：DavidHirshleifer(University of California)

YaronLevi(University of Southern California)

BenLourie(University of California)

Siew HongTeoh (University of California)

摘要：心理学证据表明，决策质量在长时间的决策后下降，这种现象被称为决策疲劳。我们研究决策疲劳是否会影响分析师的判断。分析师涵盖多家公司，并经常在一天内发布多项预测。我们发现，随着分析师已发布的预测数量的增加，预测准确度在一天内会下降。与决策疲劳一致，我们发现，一个分析师的预测越多，分析师就越有可能采取更具启发性的决策，因为他们会更密切地关注共识预测、自我羊群行为（即重新发布他们自己之前未完成的预测）以及发布全面的预测。最后，我们发现股票市场了解这些对分析师决策疲劳的影响和折扣。

Decision fatigue and heuristic analyst forecasts

DavidHirshleifer(University of California); YaronLevi(University of Southern California); BenLourie(University of California); Siew HongTeoh (University of California)

ABSTRACT

Psychological evidence indicates that decision quality declines after an extensive session of decision-making, a phenomenon known as decision fatigue. We study whether decision fatigue affects analysts’ judgments. Analysts cover multiple firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as the number of forecasts the analyst has already issued increases. Also consistent with decision fatigue, we find that the more forecasts an analyst issues, the higher the likelihood the analyst resorts to more heuristic decisions by herding more closely with the consensus forecast, self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst decision fatigue.

原文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304405X19300054#!

翻译：黄涛