Accounting Review, SEP 2018

基于现金流量属性预测应计利润

作者：Frankel Richard M. (Washington Univ)

Sun Yan (St Louis Univ)

摘要：本文的目的在于理解现金流量对应计项的解释程度。通过Dechow，Kothari和Watts（1998）的模型，我们发现应计项与现金流变化负相关，且负相关的程度与现金流变化中的负序列相关性有关。Dechow等人（1998）的研究也表明，应计项与收入变化间的关系强弱与经营周期长度有关。先前的权责发生模型并没有纳入这些理论关系。我们发现，当纳入现金流变化、现金流变化中的序列相关性和运营周期长度后，所有权责发生制模型（即Jones 1991；Ball and Shivakumar 2006；McNichols 2002；Jeter and Shivakumar 1999）的解释力上升了。同时，我们发现将这些变量纳入权责发生制模型也可以提高模型的规格与能力，有助于检测AAER公司（美国会计和审计强制披露）的盈余管理，并产生一个能更好地预测未来现金流与收益的非自由选择的应计估算。这些结果表明了在预测应计项时考虑应计项的经济意义的重要性。

关键词：应计项；现金流属性；现金流变化的序列相关性

Predicting Accruals Based on Cash-Flow Properties

Frankel Richard M. (Washington Univ), Sun Yan (St Louis Univ)

ABSTRACT

Our goal is to understand the extent to which cash-flow properties explain accruals. Using the Dechow, Kothari, and Watts (1998) model, we derive a negative relation between accruals and cash-flow changes, and show that the strength of the relation is linked to negative serial correlation in cash-flow changes. Dechow et al. (1998) also suggest that the strength of the relation between accruals and revenue changes relates to operating cycle length. Prior accrual models have not incorporated these theoretical relations. We show that incorporating cash-flow changes, serial correlation in cash-flow changes, and operating cycle length increases explanatory power of all accrual models considered (i.e., Jones 1991; Ball and Shivakumar 2006; McNichols 2002; Jeter and Shivakumar 1999). We find that incorporating these variables in accrual models also improves specification and power, aids detection of earnings management in AAER firms, and produces a nondiscretionary accrual estimate that better predicts future cash flows and earnings. These results suggest the importance of considering the economic role of accruals when predicting accruals.

Keywords: Accruals; Cash-flow properties; Serial correlation in cash-flow changes

原文链接：http://aaajournals.org/doi/10.2308/accr-52001

翻译：谭丰林