JOURNAL OF EMPIRICAL FINANCE，VOL45 ,JANUARY 2018

并购中的信息不确定性和目标价值评估

作者：Lin Li (Shenzhen University)

Wilson H.S. Tong(Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

摘要：本文研究目标的信息不确定性水平如何影响收购方对目标的估值以及收购方从交易中获得的收益。基于一个简单的永续贴现现金流模型，本文认为对于信息不确定性较高的目标，估值会较低，并且获得高信息不确定性的目标可能为收购方股东创造价值。实证结果支持了本文的观点。本文观察到收购方的目标估值倍数与目标的信息不确定性水平呈负相关。收购方的公告收益与目标估值乘数呈负相关，但与目标的信息不确定性水平正相关。本文结果对于估值乘数和信息不确定性的各种测量结果来说均是可靠的。

关键词：信息不确定性，投标溢价，估值乘数，收购方异常收益

Information Uncertainty and Target Valuation in Mergers and Acquisitions

Lin Li (Shenzhen University), Wilson H.S. Tong(Hong Kong Polytechnic University)

ABSTRACT

We examine how a target’s information uncertainty level affects an acquirer’s valuation of the target and the acquirer’s gain realized from the transaction. Based on a simple perpetual discounted cash flow model, we argue that the valuation will be lower for a target with higher information uncertainty and acquiring a target with high information uncertainty can potentially create value for an acquirer’s shareholders. The empirical findings lend support to our arguments. Specifically, we observe that a target’s valuation multiple obtained from an acquirer is negatively correlated with the target’s information uncertainty level. An acquirer’s announcement return is negatively correlated with the valuation multiple given to the target but positively correlated with the target’s information uncertainty level. The results are robust against various measurements of valuation multiples and information uncertainty.

Keywords: Information Uncertainty, Bid Premium, Valuation Multiple, Acquirer Abnormal Return

原文链接：

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539817300853#!

翻译：王秭越