Journal of Accounting Research ·VOL. 55, NO. 3 · June 2017
天气引起的情绪好坏是否会影响盈利新闻的处理
作者：Ed Dehaan (University of Washington), Joshua Madsen (University of Minnesota), Joseph D. Piotroski (Stanford University)
摘要：本文研究是否使人不高兴的环境因素影响股票市场投资者对信息事件的处理。本文搭建的新预测理论取自某项心理研究，该新预测理论认为天气引起的坏情绪将减少市场投资者的活跃水平。利用股票分析师所处地理位置上的差异，本文研究发现可信的证据表明相比处在令人愉悦天气状态下的分析师反应，处在不令人高兴天气状态下的分析师对公司盈利消息的反应更迟缓。价格关联检验发现的证据表明天气引起的情绪好坏延缓了根据盈利新闻应该变化的均衡价格调整时间，这也与分析师分析活动的减少结论相一致。本文还使用基于分析师的研究设计来重新检验一个现有的预测理论，该理论指出令人不高兴的天气引起投资者的悲观情绪，并发现在恶劣天气状况下分析师的悲观情绪和分析活动减少的证据。本文研究提供新证据，延伸并重申现有预测理论，发现令人不高兴的天气与市场活动之间的关系，这有助于更广泛的心理学和经济学文献研究，了解天气引起的情绪好坏对劳动生产率的影响。
关键词：情绪，关注，信息处理，分析师，股票定价，天气
Do Weather-Induced Moods Affect the Processing of Earnings News?
Ed Dehaan (University of Washington), Joshua Madsen (University of Minnesota), Joseph D. Piotroski (Stanford University)
ABSTRACT
We investigate whether unpleasant environmental conditions affect stock market participants’ responses to information events. We draw from psychology research to develop a new prediction that weather-induced negative moods reduce market participants’ activity levels. Exploiting geographic variation in equity analysts’ locations, we find compelling evidence that analysts experiencing unpleasant weather are slower or less likely to respond to an earnings announcement relative to analysts responding to the same announcement but experiencing pleasant weather. Price association tests find evidence consistent with reduced activity due to weather-induced moods delaying equilibrium price adjustments following earnings announcements. We also use our analyst-based research design to re-examine an existing prediction that unpleasant weather induces investor pessimism, and find evidence of both analyst pessimism and reduced activity in the presence of unpleasant weather. Together, our study provides new evidence that both extends and reaffirms findings of a relation between unpleasant weather and market activities, and contributes to the broader psychology and economics literature on the impact of weather-induced mood on labor productivity.
Keywords: mood; attention; information processing; analysts; stock pricing; weather
原文链接：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1475-679X.12160/full
翻译：景薇
