Journal of Accounting and Economics, Volume 42, Issues 1–2, October 2006, Pages 53–85

公司融资活动、分析师预测与股票收益率之间的关系

作者：Mark T. Bradshaw (Harvard Business School, Harvard University), Scott A. Richardson (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania), Richard G. Sloan (Ross School of Business, University of Michigan)

摘要：我们构建了一个综合且简洁的方法来度量公司的融资活动，并且我们发现这种测量方法的测度值与企业未来的股票收益率和盈利能力具有负相关性。本研究结果经济和统计上的显著性，均要强于之前学者仅关注于公司单一种类融资活动的结果。为了辨别是风险还是错误定价导致了这种负相关关系，我们分析了外部融资的测度结果和卖方分析师的预测之间的联系。我们对外部融资的测度结果与分析师预测的过度乐观相一致，这说明了错误定价是导致负相关性的原因。

关键词：外部融资，卖方分析师，资本市场，市场效率

The relation between corporate financing activities, analysts’ forecasts and stock returns

Mark T. Bradshaw (Harvard Business School, Harvard University), Scott A. Richardson (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania), Richard G. Sloan (Ross School of Business, University of Michigan)

ABSTRACT

We develop a comprehensive and parsimonious measure of corporate financing activities and document a negative relation between this measure and both future stock returns and future profitability. The economic and statistical significance of our results is stronger than in previous research focusing on individual categories of corporate financing activities. To discriminate between risk versus misvaluation as explanations for this relation, we analyze the association between our measure of external financing and sell-side analysts’ forecasts. Consistent with the misvaluation explanation, our measure of external financing is positively related to overoptimism in analysts’ forecasts.

原文链接：http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165410106000371

翻译：汪国颂