Journal of Corporate Finance · Volume 43, April 2017, Pages 175–192

过度自信与投资：一个实验方法

作者：Elena Pikulina (University of British Columbia), Luc Renneboog (Tilburg University), Philippe N. Tobler (University of Zürich)

摘要：过度自信和投资供给之间的正相关关系在理论上是合理的，并且文献中也经常应用此假设，但是该假设尚未被彻底验证。我们测试并验证了一个人对自身金融知识过度自信的程度和投资选择之间的正相关关系。更准确地说，强烈的过度自信导致过度投资，不自信导致投资不足，而适当的过度自信导致准确的投资。我们的实验结果是基于不同的主体，包括金融专业人士和学生，并且基于计算机、报纸和网络等不同媒体。一个人对其金融知识过度估计的程度与其实际知识以及同辈知识水平相关，后者能更好地解释投资决策。当考虑个人风险厌恶程度、投资项目的风险程度以及激励结构的变化时，过度自信和投资之间的关系都是稳健的。

Overconfidence and investment: An experimental approach

Elena Pikulina (University of British Columbia), Luc Renneboog (Tilburg University), Philippe N. Tobler (University of Zürich)

ABSTRACT

A positive relation between overconfidence and investment provision has been theoretically justified and practically assumed in the literature, but has not been thoroughly investigated. We test and confirm this positive relation between direct measures of overconfidence in one's financial knowledge and choice of investment. More precisely, strong overconfidence results in excess investment, underconfidence induces underinvestment, whereas moderate overconfidence leads to accurate investments. Our experimental results are based on different subject pools, financial professionals and students, and different media: computer-, paper-, and web-based. The degree of one's overestimation of one's individual financial knowledge relative to one's actual knowledge as well as relative to the knowledge of peers explains investment decisions better than one's actual knowledge. The relation between overconfidence and investment is robust to the degree of individual risk aversion, the riskiness of the investment projects, and to the changes in incentives structure.

原文链接：

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929119917300032

翻译：陈然