Contemporary Accounting Research，VOL.1， NO. 1，2017

预测精度的意义：投资者期望的重要性

作者：Kathy Rupar (University of Florida)

摘要：作者研究了投资者个体对预测精度的预期值和实际精度之间的一致性是否影响他们对公司价值的估计，以及这种关联是否能够被私人投资者对管理信誉和公司未来成长的认知所调解。实验结果证实，相对于预期和实际预测精度不一致情况，在二者相一致的情况下，个人投资者会估计出更高的公司股票价格。另外，文章还提供了关于调解路径的证据，即预期和实际预测精度之间错位会影响个人投资者对管理信誉、未来公司成长的认知，以及对公司股票价格的估计。本文的发现有助于调和前期关于盈利预测文献结论不一致的问题，有助于管理者和研究人员了解如何通过制定策略来提高管理信誉和公司估值。

Significance of Forecast Precision: The Importance of Investors’ Expectations

Kathy Rupar (University of Florida)

ABSTRACT

I investigate whether the alignment between individual investors’ expectations about forecast precision and actual forecast precision affects their estimates of firm value, and whether this relationship is mediated by individual investors’ perceptions of management credibility and future firm growth. Experimental results confirm that when expected and actual forecast precision align, individual investors estimate higher firm stock prices than when expected and actual forecast precision do not align. I also provide evidence of a mediation path through which the misalignment between expected and actual forecast precision affects individual investors’ perceptions of management credibility, future firm growth, and estimates of firm stock price. My findings help reconcile inconsistencies in prior earnings forecast literature and inform managers and researchers about strategies that lead to higher perceptions of management credibility and firm value.

原文链接：http://xueshu.baidu.com/s?wd=paperuri%3A%28663e1c897c0abebe4ab1e971f4dee148%29&filter=sc_long_sign&tn=SE_xueshusource_2kduw22v&sc_vurl=http%3A%2F%2Fpapers.ssrn.com%2Fsol3%2Fpapers.cfm%3Fabstract_id%3D2470550&ie=utf-8&sc_us=5029937089216484994

翻译：黄涛